Spektrum Iran

Abstract Public trust in media constitutes a core component of social capital and communicative legitimacy, yet it is increasingly challenged by the rapid integration of artificial intelligence and synthetic media into news production and distribution processes. This study explores alternative futures of public trust in media in the age of artificial intelligence and develops scenario-based insights for Iran toward the horizon of 2036. Adopting a futures-studies approach, the research employs a mixed-methods design that combines environmental scanning and a systematic review of academic and policy sources (2018–2025) with a two-round Delphi consultation involving fifteen experts in media, artificial intelligence, and governance. Structural analysis using the MICMAC method was applied to examine influence–dependence relationships among key variables, leading to the identification of media transparency and the quality of AI regulation as the two critical uncertainties shaping future trajectories of public trust. Based on these axes, four alternative scenarios were developed—Smart Trust, Total Distrust, Islands of Trust, and Imposed Trust—each illustrating a distinct configuration of governance choices, technological use, and audience responses. The findings demonstrate that future patterns of public trust are not technologically deterministic but are primarily driven by institutional transparency, regulatory arrangements, and governance decisions. The study concludes that strengthening accountable AI governance, enhancing media transparency, and investing in media literacy among audiences are essential for steering Iran’s media ecosystem toward a sustainable and trust-based future.